Numbers,
Numbers, Everywhere,
Nor Any Stop to Think
Sam Aurelius Milam III
![Page 3 Image](Images/Page_3_Image.gif) A
long time ago, I worked for about 10 years at GE, in San Jose, California,
as a Nuclear Engineer. For about 5 of those years, I was a Responsible
Engineer. As such, I was legally authorized, among other things,
to bear the design responsibility on Engineering Change Notices (ECNs).
I was also liable, under the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended, for
imprisonment for up to 2 years each for certain specified violations, and
for penalties of up to $25,000 for each day of such violations. That's
a lot of zeros and a lot of days.
Each
ECN had what was designated as an Internal Sheet, not to be distributed
externally. Among the various things on the Internal Sheet was a
box labeled "enter estimated total". It was used to provide a cost
estimate for whatever design change was being documented by the ECN.
Responsible Engineers initiating ECNs were required to provide that information,
for every ECN. The estimated total was always $350. Every time.
Eventually,
I got curious about that. I asked, first, why engineers were expected
to make financial cost estimates. Nobody knew. Then I asked
why the estimated total was always $350. Somebody told me that it
was just the number that we always used. Somebody, somewhere, at
some time in the past had instructed us to use that number. Nobody
knew who, when, or why.
Being
a father, I had easy access to some children's toys. One of them
was a little game called Waterful Water Works. It was a little tank
made of transparent plastic, about 6 inches wide, 8 inches tall, and 1
1/2
inches thick. It contained several little plastic rings, of different
colors. Inside the tank were two plastic spikes, pointing up.
Near the bottom was a button. When the button was pressed, it squirted
the rings up toward the top of the tank, after which they'd slowly settle
back to the bottom. Sometimes, one of the rings would settle onto
one of the spikes. My daughter was tired of the game anyway, so I
took it to work with me. I assigned different number values according
to which color of ring settled on which spike. I added a label that
said Internal Sheet Cost Estimate Calculator. I sat the thing on
my desk, facing out, where anybody could see it. Only one person,
a woman who worked in QA, ever asked me about it. She seemed amused.
For
a while after that, I used the Internal Sheet Cost Estimate Calculator
to calculate the estimated total for Internal Sheets. The numbers
were random and could vary from a few cents to thousands of dollars.
I began putting the numbers in the box on Internal Sheets and sending the
ECNs on their way. I was issuing ECNs, formal, auditable documents,
identified and tracked by formally issued unique numbers, retrievable by
number from Document Control, defined by the Engineering Operating Procedures,
used to make engineering design changes to the control systems of nuclear
reactors in an industry that was regulated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission,
under the authority of the Code of Federal Regulations and the Atomic Energy
Act as amended. As part of the information on those ECNs, I was providing
randomly calculated, completely fictitious, absolutely undocumented and
unverified numbers. They didn't bear any relationship to anything.
I don't remember how long I used the Internal Sheet Cost Estimate Calculator
but, for however long that was, nobody ever asked me where I was getting
the numbers. Nobody questioned them.
It
would be a good idea to keep this kind of thing in mind. Reported
numbers aren't always reliable, especially when somebody's trying to use
them to sell something, to promote an agenda, or to win an argument.
In that regard, I suggest my article Lies,
Damned Lies, and Statistics Again. It's available on page
2 of the February 1997 issue. I also recommend Elusive
Remedy, on pages 1 - 3 of the February 2016 issue. The story
of my entire work history, including my time at GE, is available in my
memoir Outward
Bound. The memoir is available on Pharos.![10x5 Page Background GIF Image](../../Images/10x5_Page_Background.gif)
September 2016 |
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